In Depth Coverage

Maintaining movement routes for pastoralists and wildlife in Central Kenya

The Samburu landscape, located north of the equator and east of the Great Rift Valley in central Kenya, is the setting of a rare type of conservation success story: despite an increasing human population and the absence of a broad network of protected areas, wildlife numbers are increasing. Among the numerous factors and agents behind this success, maintaining wildlife mobility is crucial. Species like elephants and wild dogs move widely in response to shifting and unpredictable resources in these arid and semi-arid lands. Thousands of pastoralist residents of the region follow a similar strategy to access grazing and water for their livestock.

The African Wildlife Foundation (AWF), a leading Africa-based international conservation organisation with an over 45-years track record of facilitating practical, field-based solutions to natural resource management challenges in Africa, and its partners work in Samburu to support the viability of both wildlife and pastoralists who depend on natural resources for survival. Specifically AWF aims to protect the ecological and socio-economic integrity of the Samburu landscape by bringing threatened segments of important wildlife movement corridors under conservation management. AWF also believes this strategy will help address climate change which stands to significantly impact all facets of this dryland ecosystem. While much is known and recorded about the ecosystem's wildlife population, significant information gaps persist regarding the current distribution of settlements, cultivation and socio-economic infrastructure that impact mobility for pastoralists and wildlife and figure prominently in conservation planning. Likewise, little is known about the current and prospective resilience of this socio-economic infrastructure and the ecosystem as a whole to climatic change.

• Link With Climate Change

  Open

  Acting in concert with other driving factors, climate change will likely impact biodiversity and livelihoods in Samburu. The synergistic effect climate change, habitat fragmentation, changes in land use patterns on wildlife life histories (dispersal, reproduction, etc) is unclear and will be difficult to unravel. Pastoralist systems are expected to be hit particularly hard by extreme weather such including prolonged droughts and increased competition for access to dwindling or variable resources driven by a growing human population. As archaeological evidence suggests that pastoralism developed in direct response to previous cycles of climatic variability in Northern Africa as a means of coping with unpredictable resource availability, pastoralists appear well suited to adapt to climate change alone. Yet in Samburu, the ability of pastoralists and wildlife alike to respond to climate change will likely be constrained by decreasing mobility and access to key resources. Mapping wildlife areas, migration routes, land use, and socio-economic infrastructure using high resolution satellite imagery is a critical step towards understanding the complex, interacting biological and socio-economic components of the landscape. Such data feed models predicting species models predicting range shifts in response to climate change/land use change scenarios. Improving our understanding of these components is critical to suggesting and applying adaptive measures to increase resilience against climate change. The new data and insights generated by this project will support conservation planning to secure the required open space and connectivity using a network of community conservation and protected areas that considers changing patterns of wildlife and pastoral areas, and contribute to sound management of critical forest, water and grazing resources.

• Objectives

  Open
  • Map current distribution of land cover and land use (including the distribution and extent of smallholder farming plots), settlements, and other socio-economic infrastructure (air strips, markets, tourism facilities, etc).
  • Use land use/land cover (LULC) data land to generate suitability models for target wildlife species (including elephants, wild dogs, and grevy's zebra) and pastoralist grazing areas.
  • Connect high wildlife suitability areas with wildlife and pastoralist movement corridors identified from survey data or models.
  • Compare current and historic imagery to identify recent land use change areas, including deforestation. Use recent land use change to predict future land use/land cover distribution.
  • Apply current and predicted LULC and a spatially explicit analysis of threats related to wildlife and pastoralist movement routes under current and future climate change/land use change scenarios. The analysis is intended to improve knowledge of specific attributes of climate change likely to directly or indirectly impact target species or habitats, or which result from specific land uses, and to contribute to adaptive management strategies.
  • Elaboration of linkages between the results of the spatial analysis and existing and potential impacts of climate change.
  • Integration of spatial information and findings on land use change, deforestation and human activity into concurrent conservation planning exercises and land management plans, conducted with communities (group ranches)n and district and wildlife officials (e.g., Kirisia Forest, Kirimon Reserve).

• Work plan

  Open

  Field-based interventions to implement priority adaptation measures identified through analysis and participatory discussion and included as part of the land use and natural resource management plans. In the case of Samburu, interventions are likely to include water and soil conservation measures, reforestation projects and the design and the identification of 'climate proofing' measures for wildlife corridors and for communities affected by changing animal migration patterns (particularly in terms of human-wildlife conflict). Use much of the data collected and models generated characterizing the present to serve as baseline information from which AWF can monitor future land use and climatic changes and the impact of AWF-led mitigation and adaptation interventions.

• Schedule

  Open

  07/01/2009 to 03/15/2010

• Technical and Scientific Approach & Methods Proposed

  Open

  AWF's internal Spatial Analysis Laboratory, housed in Nairobi with additional technical support from Washington DC, will work with the landscape implementation team based in Nanyuki, Kenya which includes Grevy's Zebra and Wild Dog research scientists. The project's core team will also benefit from the engagement of the newly created position of Climate Change Advisor within AWF (recruitment for this position is underway at the time of writing). The Spatial Analysis Laboratory hosts the capacity needed for the effective management and analysis of data. The Samburu implementation team is the force on the ground, communicating and working with partners to facilitate the development of conservation and management plans and the implementation of targeted activities pursuant to plans. The methodological approach will include:

  • Use combination of object-based image analysis (ENVI 4.6 Zoom) and manual delineation to extract LULC features, settlements, and other socio-economic infrastructure from 2.5m SPOT imagery.
  • Generate Mahalanobis distance models of species and pastoralist grazing suitability models using observations from AWF researchers and partners as training data and the environmental variables such as distance from settlements, roads density, and from the LULC and socio-economic data (in addition to others) as environmental inputs.
  • Delineate corridors connecting high suitability species and pastoralists areas where survey data is available. Where survey data is not available, model corridors (Habitat Assessment module within IDRISI Taiga Land Change Modeler).
  • Identify recent land use change areas by differencing the current LULC with an older LULC product classified from Landsat ETM imagery from 2000.
  • Predict future LULC distribution to 2050 using the LULC change and driver variables such as distance from settlements, population growth rates, markets, and roads derived from SPOT imagery (IDRISI Taiga Land Change Modeler).
  • Explore implications of predicted land use change on species habitat, grazing areas, and associated corridors (Habitat Assessment module IDRISI Taiga Land Change Modeler).
  • Generate climate change-driven models predicting shifts in land cover types to 2050 incorporating current LULC data and meteorological data from the Mpala Research Center and Kenya Meteorological Department. Integrate climate change model of land cover and predicted LULC to create a 2050 climate change/land use change model (CCLULC).
  • Predict 2050 species habitat, grazing areas, and associated corridors incorporating 2050 CCLULC and indirect effects such as shifting prey species abundance.
  • Integrate learning from current and predicted models into conservation planning with landscape partners, towards mitigating and adapting to climate as well as towards the overall promotion of the sustainable use and stewardship of natural resources.

  This will include integration of information and casting a climatic lens on current natural resource and land management plans for bringing a disparate array of public protected areas, private ranches, and community lands under sound, coordinated conservation management with emphasis on maintaining mobility for wildlife and pastoralists. The involved lands will include partner organizations and existing community conservancies that AWF helped establish: Kirimon National Reserve, the Baawa, Lodokejek, Mbaringon, and Ledero Group Ranches adjacent to Kirisia Forest, the existing Naibunga Conservancy (a union of nine Maasai group ranches in Laikipia, and the proposed Central Laikipia Conservancy consisting of the ADC Mutara Ranch, Eland Downs (a private parcel and critical corridor link in the ecosystem), Ol Pejeta Conservancy, and the Mpala Research Centre. Work in the field will be based on participatory engagement and consultation with stakeholders.

• Results

  Open

  Expected results include:

  • Models of current and predicted species habitat suitability, grazing area suitability, and associated corridors. Predicted models incorporate land use/land cover changes driven by population growth and climate change.
  • Accurate baseline information profiling the status of key species, wildlife and pastoralist movement corridors, and human distribution in the conservation zone enabling change to be monitored over time.
  • The addition of important climate-related dimensions to land use and natural resource management plans. - Increased capacity and access for AWF and conservation partners in Samburu thanks to the up-to-date imagery and impetus for specific attention to climate change.
  • Elaboration and integration of climate-related indicators into AWF's existing monitoring and evaluation system for Samburu.

  
  

   

• Deliverables

  Open

  By the end of the project period, AWF will be able to deliver:

  • Maps and models of current and predicted LULC distribution, current socio-economic infrastructure distribution, species habitat and grazing suitability and connecting corridors inside the targeted conservation zones.
  • Landscape conservation plans which reflect integration population and climate change-driven LULC change, as well as the explicit consideration of climate mitigation and/or adaptation measures.

• Use of Satellite Imagery and GIS Solutions

  Open

  With the support of Planet Action, AWF aims to generate a synoptic view of the distribution of open/wildlife areas, land use, and socio-economic resources as a basis for creating a network of public and private conservation areas that collectively would maintain wildlife migration routes and accessibility to grazing and wildlife resources for pastoralists. The detailed mapping would also contribute to models of climate change impacts on key wildlife species and water resources and contribute towards the development and dissemination of adaptation strategies. The proposed actions will be fully integrated into AWF's landscape level programme in Samburu, as a large landscape approach increases the chances of successfully mitigating and responding to climate variability and change (IPCC, 2007).

• Local Actions

  Open

  Planned local actions will include:

  • Dissemination of derived maps and analysis with affected stakeholders, including group ranches and county councils, and fellow non-governmental partners
  • Sharing of derived products via AWF GIS's conserveonline data portal
  • Consultation with community groups and local government stakeholders in the development and execution of natural resource and land use plans
  • Development of actions and indicators to address the impact of proposed actions in natural resource and land use plans as far the climatic change may be concerned.

• Region Name

  Open
  Samburu Landscape in Central Kenya (comprised of Laikipia District and parts of Samburu and Isiolo Districts). Please see the shapefile attached.

• Partners involved in project

  Open
  AWF's Spatial Analysis Laboratory has the technical skills, equipment, and expertise needed to utilise optimally the satellite imagery. Much of the work will be performed using ArcGIS 9.2, ENVI 4.6, and IDRISI Taiga. AWF is committed to working with and sharing imagery for the benefit of several other organisations working in the landscape, including:- Samburu and Laikipia County Councils, mandated to oversee all development activities in their respective districts, will be key local partners in conservation planning and implementation.- Kenya Wildlife Service, responsible for the implementation and development of wildlife policy.- Local communities, organised as group ranches, own and manage some of the most critical lands for conservation in Samburu and will be critical partners in land us planning and implementation.- Other nongovernmental partners will include Mpala Research Center and the Laikipia Research Program, each of how presently works on specific research issues or species in the landscape. AWF will seek to engage Mpala as an active partner in monitoring climate variability over time.